Climatology and trends in the forcing of the stratospheric zonal-mean flow

The momentum budget of the Transformed Eulerian-Mean (TEM) equation is calculated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-40) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 (R-2). This study outlines the considerable contribution of unresolved waves, deduced to be gravity waves, to the forcing of the zonal-mean flow. A trend analysis, from 1980 to 2001, shows that the onset and break down of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar night jet has a tendency to occur later in the season in the more recent years. This temporal shift follows long-term changes in planetary wave activity that are mainly due to synoptic waves, with a lag of one month. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the polar vortex shows a tendency to persist further into the SH summertime. This also follows a statistically significant decrease in the intensity of the stationary EP flux divergence over the 1980–2001 period. Ozone depletion is well known for strengthening the polar vortex through the thermal wind balance. However, the results of this work show that the SH polar vortex does not experience any significant long-term changes until the month of December, even though the intensification of the ozone hole occurs mainly between September and November. This study suggests that the decrease in planetary wave activity in November provides an important feedback to the zonal wind as it delays the breakdown of the polar vortex. In addition, the absence of strong eddy feedback before November explains the lack of significant trends in the polar vortex in the SH early spring. A long-term weakening in the Brewer-Dobson (B-D) circulation in the polar region is identified in the NH winter and early spring and during the SH late spring and is likely driven by the decrease in planetary wave activity previously mentioned. During the rest of the year, there are large discrepancies in the representation of the B-D circulation and the unresolved waves between the two reanalyses, making trend analyses unreliable.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant ATM0733698

Climatology and Trends in the Forcing of the Stratospheric Ozone Transport

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/)A thorough analysis of the ozone transport was carried out using the Transformed-Mean Eulerian (TEM) tracer transport equation and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA-40). In this budget analysis, the chemical net production term, which is calculated as the residual of the other terms, displays the correct features of a chemical sink and source term, including location and seasonality, and shows a good agreement in magnitude compared to other methods of calculating ozone loss rates. This study provides further insight into the role of the eddy ozone transport and underlines its fundamental role in the recovery of the ozone hole during spring. The trend analysis reveals that the ozone hole intensification over 1980-2001 time period is not directly related to the trend in chemical losses, but more specifically to the balance in the trends in chemical losses and transport. That is because, in the SH from October to December, the large increase in the chemical destruction of ozone is balanced by an equally large trend in the eddy transport, associated with a small increase of the mean transport. This study shows that the increase in the eddy transport is characterized by more poleward ozone eddy flux by transient waves in the midlatitudes and by stationary waves in the polar region. This is primarily due to the presence of storm tracks in the midlatitudes and of the asymmetric Antarctic topography and ice-sea heating contrasts near the pole. Overall, this study makes clear of the fact that without an increase in the eddy ozone transport over the 1980-2001 time period, the ozone hole over Antarctica would be drastically more severe. This underlines the need for careful diagnostics of the eddy ozone transport in modeling studies of long-term changes in stratospheric ozone.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors and the National Science Foundation grant ATM073369

Is Current Irrigation Sustainable in the United States? An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources and Irrigated Crop Yields

While the impact of climate change on crop yields has been extensively studied, the quantification of water shortages on irrigated crop yields has been regarded as more challenging due to the complexity of the water resources management system. To investigate this issue, we integrate a crop yield reduction module and a water resources model into the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework, an integrated assessment model that links a model of the global economy to an Earth system model. While accounting for uncertainty in climate change, we assess the effects of climate and socio-economic changes on the competition for water resources between industrial, energy, domestic and irrigation; the implications for water availability for irrigation; and the subsequent impacts on crop yields in the US by 2050. We find that climate and socio-economic changes will increase water shortages and strongly reduce irrigated crop yields in specific regions (mostly in the Southwest), or for specific crops (i.e. cotton and forage). While the most affected regions are usually not major crop growers, the heterogeneous response of crop yield to global change and water stress suggests that some level of adaptation can be expected, such as the relocation of cropland area to regions where irrigation is more sustainable. Finally, GHG mitigation has the potential to alleviate the effect of water stress on irrigated crop yields—enough to offset the reduced CO2 fertilization effect compared to an unconstrained GHG emission scenario.This work was partially funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change Division, under Cooperative Agreement No. XA-83600001 and by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, under grant DE-FG02-94ER61937. The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by a number of federal agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors. (For the complete list see http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/current.html)

The Madden–Julian oscillation wind-convection coupling and the role of moisture processes in the MM5 model

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) produced by a mesoscale model is investigated using standardized statistical diagnostics. Results show that upper- and lower-level zonal winds display the correct MJO structure, phase speed (8 m s[superscript −1]) and space–time power spectrum. However, the simulated free atmosphere moisture, outgoing longwave radiation and precipitation do not exhibit any clear MJO signal. Yet, the boundary layer moisture, moist static energy and atmospheric instability, measured using a moist static energy instability index, have clear MJO signals. A significant finding is the ability of the model to simulate a realistic MJO phase speed in the winds without reproducing the MJO wind-convection coupling or a realistic propagation in the free atmosphere water vapor. This study suggests that the convergence of boundary layer moisture and the discharge and recharge of the moist static energy and atmospheric instability may be responsible for controlling the speed of propagation of the MJO circulation.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant ATM0733698

A spectroscopic survey of the youngest field stars in the solar neighbourhood. I. The optically bright sample

We present the first results of a ground-based programme conducted on 1-4m class telescopes. Our sample consists of 1097 active and presumably young stars, all of them being optical counterparts of RASS X-ray sources in the northern hemisphere. We concentrate on the 704 optically brightest (V_Ticho<=9.5 mag) candidates. We acquired high-res spectroscopy in the Halpha/Li spectral regions for 426 of such stars without relevant literature data. We describe the sample and the observations and we start to discuss its physical properties. We used a cross-correlation technique and other tools to derive accurate radial/rotational velocities and to perform a spectral classification for both single and SB2 stars. The spectral subtraction technique was used to derive chromospheric activity levels and Li abundances. We estimated the fraction of young single stars and multiple systems in stellar soft X-ray surveys and the contamination by more evolved systems, like RS CVn's. We classified stars on the basis of Li abundance and give a glimpse of their sky distribution. The sample appears to be a mixture of young Pleiades-/Hyades- like stars plus an older Li-poor population (~1-2 Gyr). 7 stars with Li abundance compatible with the age of IC 2602 (~30 Myr) or younger were detected as well, although 2 appear to be Li-rich giants. The discovery of a large number of Li-rich giants is another outcome of this survey. The contamination of soft X-ray surveys by old systems in which the activity level is enhanced by tidal synchronisation is not negligible, especially for K-type stars. 5 stars with Li content close to the primordial abundance are probably associated with known moving groups in the solar neighbourhood. Some of them are PTTS candidates according to their positions in the HR diagram.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures, 6 tables; 2 figures and 2 tables in electronic form only. Paper accepted by Astronomy and Astrophysic

A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections (using different climate policies), climate system parameters (represented by different values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing), natural variability (by perturbing initial conditions) and structural uncertainty (using different climate models). The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an intermediate complexity earth system model (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the US is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Secondly, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that uncertainty in temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to precipitation changes, with natural variability having a large impact in the first part of the 21st century. Overall, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty in future projections of climate change over the US.This work was partially funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency under Cooperative Agreement #XA-83600001. The Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is funded by a number of federal agencies and a consortium of 40 industrial and foundation sponsors. For a complete list of sponsors, see: http://globalchange.mit.edu. This research used the Evergreen computing cluster at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Evergreen is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830. The 20th Century Reanalysis V2 data was provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/

Contact Line Catch Up by Growing Ice Crystals

The effect of freezing on contact line motion is a scientific challenge in the understanding of the solidification of capillary flows. In this letter, we experimentally investigate the spreading and freezing of a water droplet on a cold substrate. We demonstrate that solidification stops the spreading because the ice crystals catch up with the advancing contact line. Indeed, we observe the formation and growth of ice crystals along the substrate during the drop spreading, and show that their velocity equals the contact line velocity when the drop stops. Modelling the growth of the crystals, we predict the shape of the crystal front and show that the substrate thermal properties play a major role on the frozen drop radiusComment: Physical Review Letters, 22 juin 202